@@ -16,9 +16,9 @@ is the evidence of the model $\mathcal{M}$. Bayesian model selection involves co
Here we solve the curve fitting problem presented in Sec.~\ref{sec:curve_fitting} using of Bayesian statistical inference.
\begin{enumerate}
\item Compute the posterior distribution $p(H_0 | d, \mathcal{M}_1)$ of the Hubble constant $H_0$ using the Supernova Cosmology project data $z \leq0.1$. Assume the Hubble's law [Eq.~\eqref{eq:Hubble_law}] as the model $\mathcal{M}_1$. Assume uniform prior for $H_0$ in the interval $(10, 100)$ km/s/Mpc. You can use a Gaussian likelihood with $\sigma=1$. That is,
\item Compute the posterior distribution $p(H_0 | d, \mathcal{M}_1)$ of the Hubble constant $H_0$ using the Supernova Cosmology project data $z \leq0.1$. Assume the Hubble's law [Eq.~\ref{eq:Hubble's Law}] as the model $\mathcal{M}_1$. Assume uniform prior for $H_0$ in the interval $(10, 100)$ km/s/Mpc. You can either use a Gaussian likelihood with $\sigma_{i}=1$ or calculate the standard deviations (${\sigma_{i}}$) of $d_{L}$ from the data. In any case, the likelihood of data is:
where $d_i$ and $z_i$ are the samples of the luminosity distance and redshift from the data and $d_L(z_i, \mathcal{M}_1)$ is the relation between luminosity distance and redshift predicted by model $\mathcal{M}_1$ evaluated at redshift $z_i$.
\item Repeat the analysis using the full data set. What are the differences that you see in the posterior?